The most frequently asked questions in Bangladesh are all regarding BNP’s scheduled rally on October 28 (today), which is slated to be a major showdown. What will happen? Will BNP occupy the streets? Will the government allow BNP activists to travel to Dhaka? Will Dhaka become an isolated island, disconnected from the rest of the country as it was on December 10 last year and July 28 this year?

To be honest, no one has the answers. But there are some clues in the comments of ruling party leaders and police officials – any person who is familiar with the country’s political situation is bound to fear that the situation will be dreadful. It is the task of the law enforcers to maintain law and order if anyone tries to violate them. But when law enforcers make loud pronouncements, one cannot help but wonder whether they themselves might become over-enthusiastic in their duties.

The ruling party must keep in mind that they have a greater role in maintaining peace and stability. As such, their comments must be all the more tempered with moderation. It is natural that the opposition will criticise the government and will threaten to oust it through a movement. But it does not behove the government to create a confrontational situation.

When the two arch-rivals are heating up the political field, the Islamist parties – generally BNP allies – have announced plans to hold rallies and stage demonstrations on the same day. It seems all the opposition forces are becoming active ahead of the national election. We know that although the Islamist parties don’t enjoy a significantly popular support base in Bangladesh, they do become active during elections, and the small percentage of votes that they command becomes a deciding factor in the first-past-the-post electoral maths. This time is not an exception.

BNP has been threatening ever stronger campaigns to topple the government for quite some time. The threat was made so frequently, with predictable caveats or delays, that it has become a laughing matter. A most common threat, with suspended execution, used to be “movement after Eid,” to which many would retort, “But which Eid?” This time, the opposition threatened a movement after Durga Puja, which ended on October 24. But unlike other times, BNP was quick and is set to hold a rally on October 28. The party has already asked its leaders and activists to arrive at Dhaka by that date. So, it seems that the threat of BNP’s movement may no longer be a laughing matter.

The ruling party may relate to October 28 well because, 17 years ago on the same day, then Prime Minister Khaleda Zia tendered her resignation, which led the president to form a caretaker government. Awami League had declared a rally at Paltan Maidan and told its activists to show up with poles and oars. On the same day, BNP had called for a rally in front of its party office in Nayapaltan, while Jamaat had called one at the north gate of Baitul Mukarram National Mosque.

In such a situation, Dhaka police had deployed around 15,000 members of the police force in the capital on October 28, prohibiting any gatherings or rallies in and around Paltan. Leaders and activists of the Awami League-led 14-party alliance clashed with those of Jamaat-e-Islami near Baitul Mukarram. Four activists of Jamaat and one of Workers’ Party were killed that day, while 11 people were killed nationwide.

This time, the situation is nearly the same as 17 years ago: BNP will hold a rally in front of its Nayapaltan headquarters, Awami League is set to gather at the north gate of Baitul Mukarram, and Jamaat will meet at Shapla Chattar. Back then, a caretaker government system was in place. The point of conflict was who would be its chief. At that time, BNP was in power. This time, Awami League is in office. We don’t know what will end up happening, but given the tone of the statements being made by the political leaders and law enforcers, there are enough reasons for us to be worried, even if BNP leaders are saying that the programme will be peaceful and that they don’t have any plans to occupy the streets.

Reports from Awami League meetings indicate that the party intends to put on a show of force on October 28 as well. But it does not do much to quell a serious case of nerves when one also hears the call from the leadership to arrive with sticks to the procession, reawakening memories of 17 years ago. The stance is perhaps more to caution BNP and to send the opposition camp a signal that Awami League will simply not let them have the streets all to themselves.

So far, it seems that nothing big will happen if BNP is allowed to hold the rally. If they were not obstructed, the rally would very likely take on mammoth proportions and fresh programmes will be announced from there. But if the programme is obstructed, then violence may erupt.

Saturday’s rally is important to BNP because if it fails to create any momentum around the rally, it will fail to build a movement to compel the government to accept its demand. The Election Commission has hinted that the election schedule may be announced midNovember. So, BNP has very little time in hand and is desperate to make the programme successful. On the other hand, if the ruling Awami League can foil the rally, it will establish its upper hand and get a morale booster to hold the election as it wishes.

With the national election just over two months away, Awami League appears to have taken on a reactive role, responding to BNP’s manoeuvres on the field. It is not the first time that the ruling party is playing a reactive role, but BNP has always managed to lose its momentum. One wonders if this time will be an exception. But, even if that happens, would it not be too little too late?